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The market penetration rate has broken through a key node
Overall performance of the industry
By 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in electric ash dump trucks (including sub-categories such as sanitation vehicles, mixer trucks, and dump trucks) will exceed 15%, achieving a leapfrog growth compared to 1% in 2021.
The overall penetration rate of the electric heavy-duty truck market is expected to exceed 15% simultaneously, among which closed-scenario models such as mixer trucks and municipal engineering vehicles will become the main sources of growth.
Regional market highlights
Cities such as Zhengzhou and Changsha have rapidly increased the penetration rate of electric gray dump trucks through pilot policies. In some regional bidding projects, the proportion of new energy vehicle models has exceeded 40%.
Tianjin, Xiamen and other places have clearly stipulated that the proportion of new energy vehicles in municipal engineering vehicles should not be less than 80% by 2025. The policy is forcing traditional fuel vehicles to be phased out at an accelerated pace.
Ii. Quantitative Comparison of Cost Advantages
Lead in life cycle cost (TCO)
The full life cycle cost of electric ash dump trucks is 180,000 yuan lower than that of fuel vehicles of the same level, with fuel cost savings contributing over 70%.
Economic comparison of typical scenarios:
Fuel-powered mixer truck: 85 yuan per kilometer
Electric mixer truck: 1 yuan per kilometer (with a reduction of up to 98%)
Operational efficiency improvement
Enterprises like Yutong have reduced the comprehensive cost for users by 15% through the "integrated design of chassis and superstructure", while also extending the service life of key components.
The battery swap mode enables energy replenishment within 3 minutes. Combined with the dynamic load optimization algorithm, the average daily transportation capacity of a single vehicle is increased by 40%.
Iii. Core Driving Factors
The specific manifestations of the driving dimension
Policy support National carbon dual strategy promotion + Local road rights opening + financial subsidy (up to 30% of vehicle price)
Technology progress Battery cost reduction (lithium carbonate price from 600,000 to 75,500) + Breakthrough in fast charging technology
Scene Fit Closed Scene Autonomous driving (L3 level) +IP69K protection motor FIT for harsh conditions in mines, ports, etc
Iv. Future Trend Prediction
The penetration rate of new energy mixer trucks may reach 40% by 2025, and the penetration rate of electric dump trucks is expected to exceed 40%.
Leading enterprises are accelerating the layout of integrated solutions and further reducing operating costs through the collaboration of "vehicle-station-cloud".
Through triple breakthroughs in policy, technology and scenarios, electric gray dump trucks are shifting from policy-driven to market-driven, forming a sustainable business closed loop.
